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EURNZD: Heading a sell-off

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Elliot Wave Analysis for EURNZD

EURNZD is the pair that holds the approximate 35% of the global turnover with Euro has the 32,5% and the new Zealand’s dollar has the 2,6%, out of the total 200%, according to the Bank of International Settlements.

The EURNZD now is traded at 1,6742 points. Its all-time high was at 2,5804 in February 2009, and its all-time low was at 1,388380 points in April 2015 low.

Monthly Range: Bearish in wave y

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Eurnzd: Heading A Sell-Off 11

            On the monthly trading chart (log scale), we see the consolidation that the pair is within almost 25 years. These fluctuations maybe have another way of counting, but we are considering the simplest one. From our point of view, this is a double corrective pattern as of w-x-y Cycle waves. The w Cycle has subdivided into an ((A)) – ((B)) – ((C)) Primary degree waves as a zig-zag pattern.

Thereinafter follows the x Cycle wave which made also a zig-zag pattern with its ((B)) be a contracting triangle.  Against the end of x, at 1,992730 points, the pair started a dropdown to construct the last y Cycle wave. It is expected a 3-wave sequence, which so far has been done with the first and maybe the second leg, as of an ((A)) – ((B)) – ((C)) zig-zag formation.

The hypothetical second leg has ended at the 1,736860 points, and if it breaks, then we think that the ((B)) Primary of the y Cycle wave hasn’t been finished yet. Always the corrections to important support or resistance levels are helpful because we can count better an impulse or a correction.

Weekly Range: Bearish in wave y

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Eurnzd: Heading A Sell-Off 12

            Zoomed in the weekly trading chart (log scale), we can see what the previous level of the hypothetical unlabeled ((B)) Primary of the y Cycle wave looks like. We know that in double corrective patterns the y Cycle will end up below the end of the w of the same degree. Thus, the ((C)) Primary of the y Cycle wave has some options on where is going to be completed.

            Using the Fibonacci extension tool the 1:1 ratio between w and y Cycle waves is at 1,152434 points, and the 123,6% multiple of w is at 0,958091 points.

Daily Range: Last stage of wave 2

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Eurnzd: Heading A Sell-Off 13

             Closer to the daily trading chart (log scale), the construction of an ((A)) – ((B)) – ((C)) Primary waves as a zig-zag for the y Cycle, will have the 5-3-5 structure. So, the (1) Intermediate of the ((1)) Primary wave has been completed, as well as the (2) of the ((1)) Primary.

The sharp decline not far away from the end of the (1) Intermediate and the direct upward rally in a 3-wave mode, forces us to label them as the new 1 and 2 Minor waves of the (3) Intermediate of the ((1)) Primary wave.

Thus, we will have an extended (3) Intermediate wave. An important resistance to the 2 Minor of the (3) Intermediate wave is the 78,6% multiple of the 1 Minor at the 1,698394 points.

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