Elliot Wave Analysis for IBEX 35
IBEX 35 is the stock market index of Spain consisting of the 35 largest listed companies, based on their market capitalization. It was introduced in 1992, but the prices were calculated from 1989 at the initial 3000 points. Spain has 4 significant stock exchanges in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, and Bilbao. They are all subsidiaries of the Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles Group.
The 5 top industry sectors that share the bigger market capitalization from their companies’ participation in the index are, electricity, clothing, telecommunications, and financial services.
The IBEX 35 now is traded at 8081,19 points, its all-time high was at 16040 points in November 2007, and its all-time low was at 1862,20 points in October 1992.
Monthly Range: Higher in wave V
In general, the Spain index didn’t follow the other European markets, after the 2007-2009 crisis in Lehman Brothers. From the all-time high that we mentioned above, end of the III Cycle wave, as the monthly trading chart (log scale) shows, the index started a downtrend to complete the IV Cycle wave in a 3-wave sequence. Our counting focused on the lower and higher lows to find patterns and formations.
We observe 2 sharp downward moves as the ((A)) and ((C)) Primary waves, and a sideways corrective running triangle for the ((B)) Primary wave. Also, the last unlabeled (E) Intermediate wave is a contracting triangle subdivided into the unlabeled A – E Minor waves. Thereinafter, against 5814,50 points a rally began which with 3 waves up approached the end of the ((B)) Primary wave at 10100,20 points.
Weekly Range: Higher in wave V
On the weekly trading chart (log scale), we see 2 scenarios. The basic is that it is going higher in wave V Cycle wave, and the alternative that is going lower breaking the end of the hypothetical IV Cycle wave. We are favoring first the basic uptrend scenario because we are near to breaking the 10100,20 than breaking the 5814,50.
So, within the basic uptrend scenario, it is expected a 5-wave count of Primary degree waves for the final V Cycle wave. The first 4 legs out of 5 Intermediate waves have been completed, and the only option that remains for a motive wave is a leading expanding diagonal, due to the overlapping of unlabeled 4 into the unlabeled 1 Intermediate waves, and the 1<3<5, and 2<4 rules of the diagonal that here exist. Thus, we expect a breaking of the upper triangle’s trendline beyond the end of ((B)) Primary wave.
Daily Range: Higher in wave 3 of (3)
Closer to the daily trading chart (log scale), to continue the basic scenario but in favor of an impulse wave now without looking at the overlap, the third that we were talking about previously, is the 1 Minor of the (3) Intermediate wave. Of course, we have already said that the index has to exceed the end of the 1 Minor and take this as a confirmation sign for the basic scenario.
For the alternative scenario now, because of not exceeding beyond the end of the hypothetical 1 Minor wave, along with a 3-wave counting, it could be considered as part of the corrective IV Cycle which in essence wouldn’t have been completed yet. So, our counting will be changed directly if we would see a decline below the end of the hypothetical 2 Minor wave at 7287, 70 points and next at the end of the (2) Intermediate wave at the 6329,50 points.
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