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Litecoin: Bearish in wave IV

Elliot Wave Analysis for LITECOIN

Litecoin was founded in 2011. Technically speaking is identical to Bitcoin, but the main difference between them is that the source code has managed to decrease the block generation time to 2,5 minutes.

It is not as popular as Bitcoin is, but unlike this fact is the most traded cryptocurrency, since it maintains its position among the 30  best cryptos.

Litecoin now is traded at $44,41, having lost almost 10 times the value from its all-time high at $413,47 in May 2021, against the all-time low in April 2015 at 0,44$

Monthly Range: Correcting in wave IV

            Although it was introduced in 2011, its fresh monthly trading chart (log scale) shows the right way for an impulse during the main trend. So, having made 2 consecutive peaks in 2018 and 2021, as of the ((3)) and the ((5)) Primary waves respectively, it began a downward move which till now hasn’t broken any of the lines of the contracting triangle’s trendlines of the previous ((4)) Primary wave.

            The whole impulse is the III Cycle wave which was completed. Thus, the correction now is part of the IV Cycle wave. Usually, according to the Elliot Wave Principle, the fourth wave is constructing sideways corrective patterns, like flats and triangles, but this is not a rule, it’s only a guideline and can be broken.

Weekly Range: Correcting in wave ((A)) of IV

            A confirmation sign is always to find a 3-wave count mode for the corrective patterns, and as the weekly trading chart (log scale) tells us, it is already done with the first leg of a flat or a triangle. We said flat or triangle, like the downward ((A)) Intermediate wave here, because they are the only option of giving 3s, except the zig-zags which are giving 5s for their first leg. Knowing that the market started from $0 to $413,47, we can estimate approximately the Fibonacci retracements.

            Walking through the guidelines of the Wave Theory, it is known that in general, the fourth waves are reaching at least the 23,6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the multiple of the third waves, but they can achieve a double it, till the 78,6% of the third wave. Therefore, having mentioned that, the 23,6%, 38,2%, the 50%, the 61,8%, and the 78,6% retracements levels of the III Cycle wave are at $51,90, $16,30, $6,01, $2,22, and $0,54 respectively. The first retracement has been reached, so we are looking if it will stop the correction nearby or if it will continue further down till the next retracement level.

Daily Range: Completing wave ((v)) of C of (Y)

             From the daily trading chart (log scale), we can see how the IV Cycle wave has unfolded. A double corrective pattern has taken place in a (W) – (X) – (Y) Intermediate waves structure. The unfinished C Minor of the (Y) Intermediate wave has subdivided into the ((i)) – ((v)) Minute degree waves. The ((v)) Minute wave can be predicted since an expected value for the fifth wave is 61,8% of the starting wave to the third wave. Thus, this level stands for $35,46. Of course, as we previously said, this will be the ((A)) Primary of the IV Cycle wave.

            Also, another method for forecasting the whole (Y) ending point is on using the multi-wave-relationship logic among the waves. Hence, if we take the 161,8% multiple of (W) based on the end of(X) at $295,35, the market will fall at $32,38, and if we take the multiple of the A Minor at 100%, 123,6%, 138,2%, and 161,8% referenced to the end of B at $143,86, the currency will fall in the $46,95, $35,37, $29,69, and $22,61 respectively.

            So, we believe that in the range of $20 and $40, the decline will stop, and as we were saying above, finally Litecoin will climb back near to its all-time high.

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Written by Trade Zign

TradeZign (TZ) is a market forecasting firm,TZ's 10 full-time analysts cover every major market (commodities, stocks, energy, bonds, metals, currencies).

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