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Elliot Wave Analysis for SMI
Swiss Market Index, is a minor stock market index, which is calculated as 70% of the free-float capitalization arrived by Switzerland’s equities, and the rest percentage from the trading turnover of both the Swiss Market and the Liechtenstein equity market which is listed as Swiss Market also. First, introduced in June 1988, having a baseline the 1500 points. It consists of 20 top-performance companies, 19 being in the large-cap and 1 in a mid-cap. The currency that is traded is the Swiss Franc and is the benchmark and the underlying index for many financial instruments, like options, futures, mutual funds, ETFs, and other structured products. Now is traded at 11788.91 points, having reached the all-time high in January 2022, at 12997 points.
Monthly Range: Higher in wave ((3))
On the monthly chart (log scale), we have the whole picture of the starting point from 1988 till now. Thus, our counting sees a strong III and a running triangle, which is the IV wave. Referring to the running triangle is the one in which the second of its 5 waves, exceeds the start of its first wave (exactly after the end of III), and after that, it constructs lower highs and higher lows. The upper and the bottom trendline is always a sign for us so that if they broke above or below, we are able to define the long/short term trend.
Therefore, here, the Swiss Index broke the upper trendline of the running triangle and went near the high of its second wave, at 9537 points, building the ((1)) of V.
After that, the market made 3 waves with a formation of a running flat – the same explanation like the running triangles – constructing the ((2)), and till now, it was moved again in an uptrend, going to a new all-time high on January 2022, as it was mentioned above.
Weekly Range: Higher in wave (3)
Getting closer to the weekly chart (log scale), we will try to explain the counting after the ending of ((2)) of V,
The market has done with the 1, 2, 3, and 4 of the (1) of ((3)) of V, and it is expected to go higher to finish the 5 of (1) of ((3)) of V. Due to the third waves, being extended as the strongest ones of all motives of the same degree, the 3 was unfolded as a 5-wave subdivision between ((i)) – ((v)). The market went down for the 4 and it moved up and down, in minute degree waves, labeled from us as the new ((i)) and ((ii)) of 5 of ((3)) of V.
As the blue path arrow shows us, the SMI is expected to move higher and fulfilled the 1:1 ratio between the 1 and the end of 5 of V, which is at the 14971 points. This is a projection from us, assuming that, since the 3 cannot be the shortest one of the other motive waves, 1 and 5, then we expect four options for 5. One is the 1:1 ratio, between 1 and 5, the second is the 61,8% of the whole distance from the starting point of 1 until the end of 3, the third choice is the 2,00% – 138,2% of wave 4, and the fourth option is the 161,8% of wave 1.
Daily Range: Higher in wave ((iii)) of 5
That being said, on the daily chart (log scale), we see clearly an uptrend, without a break of important support, Thus, with the resistance at a 10% higher, we believe that in the short-term, SMI will make a new high, having completed the 5 of (1) of ((3)) of V.
On the other hand, if the market breaks the end of 4, then we shall have a continuation in the downtrend, till the next important support, which we wouldn’t want to be within the territory of wave 1
See More Analysis For Global Indices, Section 2: http://tradezign.com/category/section-2
