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XLE: Higher in wave ((5))

Xle 2022 05 06 22 20 56

Elliot Wave Analysis for SPDR

A Standard & Poor’s Depositary Receipt, or SPDR, is a type of exchange-traded fund, that began trading on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) in 1993, when State Street Global Advisors’ investment management group, first issued shares of the SPDR 500 Trust (SPY). Consisting of the top energy sector companies, like Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, and many more, is a real trading asset with stability and low volatility.

Monthly Range: Higher in wave ((5))

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Xle: Higher In Wave ((5)) 10

Looking at the monthly trading chart (log scale), we could observe the retracement from the top of labeled ((3)) Primary, at $101,52 to the bottom, at $22,88, which was meaningful support,

as it touched support price levels of a decline within the ((3)) Primary. We count this retracement as a ((4)) Primary wave,

because it’s a zig-zag, with 5 waves for (A) Intermediate wave, a contracting triangle as a (B) Intermediate wave, and a sharp (C) Intermediate wave, acting as a third wave within an impulse. We know that zig-zags have a structure of a 5-3-5 mode. Also, we can say that we were expecting to go lower from the end of (A),

because the last wave of ((3)), was an ending expanding diagonal, 1<3<5< and 2<4 also overlapping of 4th wave into the price territory of wave 1, as its fifth Intermediate degree wave, and we are sure that after an ending diagonal, the market gives a correction near its beginning and beyond it.

Thus, after the end of the (C) of ((4)) Primary wave, we see a sharp rally, for the construction of ((5)) Primary wave, which is expected to be a 5-wave sequential move upwards

Daily Range: Completing wave (3) of ((5))

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Xle: Higher In Wave ((5)) 11

In a closer look above, on the daily trading chart (log scale), we can see, how the division of the 5 waves of the upcoming ((5)) is done. After the first rally labeled as (1) Intermediate wave, the retracement has been counted as the (2) Intermediate of ((5)) Primary, and thereinafter, since the market broke the upper trendline of the previous triangle, which was the (B) Intermediate of the ((4)) Primary wave, it found nice support at this extended trendline and again continued to move higher. So far, the extended (3) Intermediate of ((5)) Primary, traveled a little bit beyond the 161,8% Fibonacci extension level of (1) Intermediate of ((5)) Primary wave, at $88,77 than $85,37.

Thus, maybe the (3) Intermediate of ((5)) Primary wave has been completed or is about to finish. So, for the continuation scenario, the next Fibonacci extension level is 261,8%, which is represented by the $109.58.

Regarding the scenario in which the (3) of ((5)) has been completed, then the key Fibonacci retracement levels are, at 38,2%, 50%, 61,8%, and rarely 78,6% times the length price of the (3) Intermediate wave. The respective prices for those levels are, $55,93, $48,65, $42,32, and $34,70. At the first 2 retracement levels, of the upcoming (4) of ((5)) Primary wave, the whole pattern will be an acceptable impulse, as a ((5)) Primary,

whereas at the second 2 retracement levels, the whole pattern of ((5)) Primary, will be an ending expanding diagonal, with (1)< (3) <(5), (2)< (4), overlapping of (4) into the territory of (1), and lastly, to hold the rules for an expanding diagonal, the (5) of ((5)) Primary must climb almost beyond $119,14, which is the 1:1 ratio relationship with the (3) Intermediate of  ((5)) Primary wave.

On the other hand, someone would also say, that this is not a ((3)) and ((4)) Primary waves, but ((1)) and ((2)), we would say for him that we putted the ((3)) and ((4)) waves relative to the crude oil wave count. Nevertheless, our market forecast would remain the same as now. Be careful of a retracement, but have in mind the main uptrend.

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